Wins Above Average (WAA / GAA)

The companion to WAR. It is the same all-in-one value. But each part is measured against an average NHL regular, not a replacement player.

Why two numbers

WAR and WAA answer two different what-if questions with the same value engine. WAR asks how much better this player is than a replacement any team can sign. That is the right lens for putting a roster together and judging cap value. When someone gets hurt, a call-up is what you actually fall back on. WAA asks how much better this player is than an average NHL regular. That is often the more natural comparison for two established stars side by side. Nobody involved is anywhere near replacement level. Both add up the same pieces described on the GAR / WAR page. What differs is the baseline each piece is measured against.

How they relate

WAA measures every piece against league average. WAR measures even-strength play and the penalty kill against a replacement floor. It measures penalties and faceoffs against a depth-player level. The power play and finishing sit at league average in both. The baseline table on the GAR / WAR page lists each one. Both totals are turned into wins by the same goals-per-win factor. So the gap between a player's WAR and WAA comes from five pieces. It grows with how much he plays in each of them. Because every piece is measured from average, the league's WAA sums to zero for the average team. We refuse to publish a season where it does not.

When to use which

Use WAR when the question is a real roster decision. Examples are surplus value against a cap hit or what a team actually loses to an injury. Use WAA for a cleaner read on how far above the middle of the league a player sits. That helps most near the top of the league. There, replacement level is a distant idea that everyone clears with room to spare. Both are published for every rated season. Both also have a figure pooled over several seasons. They use the same public play-by-play that feeds every other card on the site.

One caveat. WAA is not a betting or forecasting signal. It is a descriptive value metric. The check behind it is the zero-sum check above. It says nothing about what a player does next. We keep WAR and WAA apart and label each for exactly what it is.

Counts on this page are read from the published data through 2026-27. A figure from a one-time study says when it was measured.