Skill and luck scores

What the skill score counts

The skill score measures a player's own shooting at five-on-five. It counts the chances he takes himself. For forwards, it also counts how well he finishes them. Passing and playmaking are not part of it. So a player who mostly sets up others can rank lower on skill than a pure shooter. He is compared with other players at his position in the same season: forwards with forwards and defensemen with defensemen. It is left blank for a season under 500 minutes at five-on-five, where it is mostly noise. For defensemen, the skill score is chance creation alone. At their shot volumes, their finishing cannot be told apart from chance. For forwards, finishing counts for less than chance creation. Only part of it is skill.

Four components

At 5v5 we break a player's on-ice production into four parts. The player largely controls the first two. The last two are things that happen around him.

How the skill score is built

The skill score combines the chances a player creates with how well he finishes them. Chance creation is the anchor. Finishing swings far more from one season to the next. That is why it counts for less. The other two parts are what happens around the player. They stay out of the skill score.

We looked at players with at least 500 five-on-five minutes in back-to-back seasons. Forwards are compared with forwards and defensemen with defensemen. The skill score repeats at 0.61 [0.56, 0.65] for forwards. For defensemen it repeats at 0.68 [0.62, 0.73]. These figures describe past seasons. They are not a test on new ones. "Skill score" is our shorthand for the half of a season a player drives himself.

Why neither score is shown

We are re-examining the skill score and the luck score. Neither is shown right now. The luck score added teammate finishing to goalie luck. Puck luck is still on the card.